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2 COVID Vaccines Approved, End to Pandemic in Sight??
#81
(11-23-2020, 08:10 AM)Seagull Wrote: Plus some tests are not accurate, also Elon Musk tried 4 with 2 different results, 2 positive, 2 negative.

Yeah, I saw that report too. That is the problem with antigen tests. They take less than an hour for results but have a high degree of inaccuracy (with both false positives and false negatives), especially when tests are administered less than 7 days after exposure. PCR tests take 1-2 days to get results, but they are far more accurate.
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#82
AstraZeneca announced their vaccine is 90% effective.  AstraZeneca expects to have up to 200 million doses ready by the end of 2020.

I'm leaning towards taking one of these vaccines myself.  However, I do have an open mind looking at the safety of these vaccines.  Your life is back to normal once you take this vaccine.  There are no more mask-wearing or worrying about getting your loved ones sick, which is going to make the vaccine quite tempting.  But by the time there is a vaccine available for us regular people to take, this COVID outbreak will probably be almost over.  I wouldn't be surprised if new COVID cases drop below 10k per day by Feb 1, 2021.  I'll be tracking the data on sites such as https://rt.live/

Qantas Airlines announced all passengers would need to be vaccinated before boarding international flights.  I expect other airlines to follow suit.  A lot of countries likely won't let people in without proof of having received a vaccine.  If companies start to require their workers to be vaccinated, too, it may become a de facto law to be vaccinated in the U.S.

A lot of my family work from home so getting together is less risky.  However, given we're in a red zone, so this isn't the best idea. It will be warm this Thanksgiving, so there an opportunity for outdoor activities, which is a lot safer.  This virus isn't just about dying or not dying.  It's about a long recovery time and possible long-term permanent damage to your health.

New hospitalizations are skyrocketing. It’s going to take 4-7 days before most people start showing symptoms after Thanksgiving and then another week before they need to go to the hospital.  The problem we have now is every place in the country is having a surge, so you can't just shift around resources.  Hospitals are nearing the breaking point.

God help us.

Be safe, everyone, this Thanksgiving holiday.
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#83
(11-24-2020, 08:16 PM)LevelUP Wrote: AstraZeneca announced their vaccine is 90% effective.  AstraZeneca expects to have up to 200 million doses ready by the end of 2020.

I'm leaning towards taking one of these vaccines myself.  However, I do have an open mind looking at the safety of these vaccines.  Your life is back to normal once you take this vaccine.  There are no more mask-wearing or worrying about getting your loved ones sick, which is going to make the vaccine quite tempting.  But by the time there is a vaccine available for us regular people to take, this COVID outbreak will probably be almost over.  I wouldn't be surprised if new COVID cases drop below 10k per day by Feb 1, 2021.  I'll be tracking the data on sites such as https://rt.live/

Qantas Airlines announced all passengers would need to be vaccinated before boarding international flights.  I expect other airlines to follow suit.  A lot of countries likely won't let people in without proof of having received a vaccine.  If companies start to require their workers to be vaccinated, too, it may become a de facto law to be vaccinated in the U.S.

A lot of my family work from home so getting together is less risky.  However, given we're in a red zone, so this isn't the best idea. It will be warm this Thanksgiving, so there an opportunity for outdoor activities, which is a lot safer.  This virus isn't just about dying or not dying.  It's about a long recovery time and possible long-term permanent damage to your health.

New hospitalizations are skyrocketing. It’s going to take 4-7 days before most people start showing symptoms after Thanksgiving and then another week before they need to go to the hospital.  The problem we have now is every place in the country is having a surge, so you can't just shift around resources.  Hospitals are nearing the breaking point.

God help us.

Be safe, everyone, this Thanksgiving holiday.

Overall in the US, 8% of all hospitalizations are covid, and % of total hospital beds being utilized is 63%.  We also don't know what's normal for this time of year during a non-covid year, so it's really hard to say if 63% is high, low or average.  But it's certainly not "nearing the breaking point."
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#84
(11-24-2020, 08:27 PM)dfrecore Wrote: Overall in the US, 8% of all hospitalizations are covid, and % of total hospital beds being utilized is 63%.  We also don't know what's normal for this time of year during a non-covid year, so it's really hard to say if 63% is high, low or average.  But it's certainly not "nearing the breaking point."

I have been going by the numbers from this website. This shows only COVID hospitalizations.
https://covidtracking.com/data/national

They take whatever the numbers the states give them so rather it's 100% true or not is debatable. It's the ICU beds that are getting critically low in a lot of states and counties.
Course Experience:
Modernstates.org/CLEP, Straighterline.com, Onlinedegree.org, Saylor.org,  Sophia.org, Study.com, Instantcertcredit, Csmlearn.com and Theinstitutes.org

Degree Plan:
Bachelors of Science in Business Administration with a concentration in CIS
Bachelors of Arts in Computer Science

114 credits earned with expected completion in 2021.
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#85
(11-24-2020, 08:38 PM)LevelUP Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 08:27 PM)dfrecore Wrote: Overall in the US, 8% of all hospitalizations are covid, and % of total hospital beds being utilized is 63%.  We also don't know what's normal for this time of year during a non-covid year, so it's really hard to say if 63% is high, low or average.  But it's certainly not "nearing the breaking point."

I have been going by the numbers from this website.  This shows only COVID hospitalizations.
https://covidtracking.com/data/national

They take whatever the numbers the states give them so rather it's 100% true or not is debatable.  It's the ICU beds that are getting critically low in a lot of states and counties.

I'm going by this website: https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-...mpact.html

And then each state has one as well.  My state is at ~75%  My Metro area is at 57% (we border another state).
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#86
(11-24-2020, 08:16 PM)LevelUP Wrote: AstraZeneca announced their vaccine is 90% effective.  AstraZeneca expects to have up to 200 million doses ready by the end of 2020.

I'm leaning towards taking one of these vaccines myself.  However, I do have an open mind looking at the safety of these vaccines.  Your life is back to normal once you take this vaccine.  There are no more mask-wearing or worrying about getting your loved ones sick, which is going to make the vaccine quite tempting.  But by the time there is a vaccine available for us regular people to take, this COVID outbreak will probably be almost over.  I wouldn't be surprised if new COVID cases drop below 10k per day by Feb 1, 2021.  I'll be tracking the data on sites such as https://rt.live/

Qantas Airlines announced all passengers would need to be vaccinated before boarding international flights.  I expect other airlines to follow suit.  A lot of countries likely won't let people in without proof of having received a vaccine.  If companies start to require their workers to be vaccinated, too, it may become a de facto law to be vaccinated in the U.S.

A lot of my family work from home so getting together is less risky.  However, given we're in a red zone, so this isn't the best idea. It will be warm this Thanksgiving, so there an opportunity for outdoor activities, which is a lot safer.  This virus isn't just about dying or not dying.  It's about a long recovery time and possible long-term permanent damage to your health.

New hospitalizations are skyrocketing. It’s going to take 4-7 days before most people start showing symptoms after Thanksgiving and then another week before they need to go to the hospital.  The problem we have now is every place in the country is having a surge, so you can't just shift around resources.  Hospitals are nearing the breaking point.

God help us.

Be safe, everyone, this Thanksgiving holiday.

Actually no your life won't be back to normal after getting a vaccine. There's 2 doses a mont apart. Mask wearing will be around for quite awhile. The government mandates won't change because SOME people have a vaccine. There's no way to tell who has the vaccine and all of the doses. We aren't walking around wearing scarlet letters.


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#87
(11-24-2020, 09:44 PM)dfrecore Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 08:38 PM)LevelUP Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 08:27 PM)dfrecore Wrote: Overall in the US, 8% of all hospitalizations are covid, and % of total hospital beds being utilized is 63%.  We also don't know what's normal for this time of year during a non-covid year, so it's really hard to say if 63% is high, low or average.  But it's certainly not "nearing the breaking point."

I have been going by the numbers from this website.  This shows only COVID hospitalizations.
https://covidtracking.com/data/national

They take whatever the numbers the states give them so rather it's 100% true or not is debatable.  It's the ICU beds that are getting critically low in a lot of states and counties.

I'm going by this website: https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-...mpact.html

And then each state has one as well.  My state is at ~75%  My Metro area is at 57% (we border another state).

FYI, the CDC numbers haven't been updated since mid-July (7/14/2020) according to the data on that site.

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-...mpact.html Wrote:Dashboards last updated as of July 14, 2020.

Overall hospitalizations and ICU utilization for COVID is 100% in some places already and way higher than normal in hotspot areas (which includes most major city centers). If you normalize that across the country, it will be a lot lower since folks in the middle of nowhere are less likely to get infected so they have far fewer COVID patients (and fewer beds as well I'd assume). This is one of the cases where a statistical mean doesn't give an accurate picture of the population being modeled, even if the data were up-to-date.
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#88
(Yesterday, 12:47 AM)Merlin Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 09:44 PM)dfrecore Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 08:38 PM)LevelUP Wrote:
(11-24-2020, 08:27 PM)dfrecore Wrote: Overall in the US, 8% of all hospitalizations are covid, and % of total hospital beds being utilized is 63%.  We also don't know what's normal for this time of year during a non-covid year, so it's really hard to say if 63% is high, low or average.  But it's certainly not "nearing the breaking point."

I have been going by the numbers from this website.  This shows only COVID hospitalizations.
https://covidtracking.com/data/national

They take whatever the numbers the states give them so rather it's 100% true or not is debatable.  It's the ICU beds that are getting critically low in a lot of states and counties.

I'm going by this website: https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-...mpact.html

And then each state has one as well.  My state is at ~75%  My Metro area is at 57% (we border another state).

FYI, the CDC numbers haven't been updated since mid-July (7/14/2020) according to the data on that site.

https://www.cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/report-...mpact.html Wrote:Dashboards last updated as of July 14, 2020.

Overall hospitalizations and ICU utilization for COVID is 100% in some places already and way higher than normal in hotspot areas (which includes most major city centers). If you normalize that across the country, it will be a lot lower since folks in the middle of nowhere are less likely to get infected so they have far fewer COVID patients (and fewer beds as well I'd assume). This is one of the cases where a statistical mean doesn't give an accurate picture of the population being modeled, even if the data were up-to-date.

I wonder what this even means though.  In my former home in San Diego county, our local hospital laid off a ton of people earlier this year due to not having ANY patients (Covid or otherwise).  So is it that hospitals are "overwhelmed" because they let a bunch of people go, and now need to get back up to speed and re-open more space?  That's certainly a possibility.

I also remember hospitals being "overwhelmed" to the point that they had medical ships in CA and NY, and mobile hospitals all over the place, and then didn't actually need ANY of them...

I am highly suspicious of this whole "overwhelmed" thing at this point, I doubt almost anything I hear these days.  I think the government is inept, and the media likes to hype things that aren't even true.
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#89
(Yesterday, 03:48 PM)dfrecore Wrote: I wonder what this even means though.  In my former home in San Diego county, our local hospital laid off a ton of people earlier this year due to not having ANY patients (Covid or otherwise).  So is it that hospitals are "overwhelmed" because they let a bunch of people go, and now need to get back up to speed and re-open more space?  That's certainly a possibility.

I also remember hospitals being "overwhelmed" to the point that they had medical ships in CA and NY, and mobile hospitals all over the place, and then didn't actually need ANY of them...

I am highly suspicious of this whole "overwhelmed" thing at this point, I doubt almost anything I hear these days.  I think the government is inept, and the media likes to hype things that aren't even true.


From what I can tell (not anywhere California), the hospitals that load off thousands of workers here have not recalled many workers still. Some hospitals permanently closed down departments. Our county public health department keeps harping on the hospitals being overwhelmed, but there are 8 COVID patients in the county hospitals. There's 3 hospitals and combined they have way over 8 ICU beds. They also don't say that the COVID patients are in the ICU. Every day or so one is released and another goes in. 

Hardly any of tent hospitals or ship hospital in NYC were used. The ship never had COVID patients on it. Most of those tent hospitals never had a single person in them!


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#90
I called the local health department because the teacher next door to my wife gave Covid to another teacher because she came to work for four days after submitting a Covid test and then tested positive making it 14 positive cases that we know of in the school and clear spread within the school and the district doesn't shut down or show up in the state school outbreak reports. Anyway, the health departments in the state are operating in triage mode. They only concern themselves with people aged 0-20 because there are only five people on staff at the local health department and hundreds of reports they have to deal with every day. The state takes the rest but they appear to have zero capability to follow-up on situations like this one and minimal ability to connect dots across the adult/child divide from local to state. Just based on my phone calls and previous Zoom session with our county health department, they are so starved of resources that I'm not sure that there is any captain of the ship and we can't know if the ship is sinking.
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