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Stock market crash
#1
So my brother, who is a total whiz in math, algorithms, economics etc, sent me an email today that he got out of the stock market altogether. He sold everything today and will watch the coming carnage unfold from the sidelines. He said that this is the big one, the crash that will lead to a 50-70% evaporation of the US markets in the next 1-2 years, coupled with high unemployment rate and everything that follows. So I am passing it on. Don't say you weren't warned.
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#2
Hope on the wave and ride it down, then ride it back up.
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#3
Only people that get out of the market altogether miss the crash - but then the rise that follows. If you look at 100 years of history, the stock market has gone up, up, up - with minor downs along the way.

Since I have 25 years before I retire, I'm going to continue to invest, knowing that there will be several up and downs along the way, and I'm fine with that. If I was retiring tomorrow, then maybe I'd pull some out...maybe not.
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#4
(08-05-2019, 09:09 PM)homeschoolmom1 Wrote: So my brother, who is a total whiz in math, algorithms, economics etc, sent me an email today that he got out of the stock market altogether. He sold everything today and will watch the coming carnage unfold from the sidelines. He said that this is the big one, the crash that will lead to a 50-70% evaporation of the US markets in the next 1-2 years, coupled with high unemployment rate and everything that follows. So I am passing it on. Don't say you weren't warned.

If he is a true market whiz and if he believes a bear market is coming then he will be betting on the downside by either going short or buying deep out of the money index option PUTs. There is fear in the market right now but we need to break above January's level on the VIX before I can agree. Right now, after a large down day it goes right back up and recovers the next day. I would be very surprised if there is truly any upcoming "carnage", implied volatility 4 to 6 months out is not signaling that. If your brother turns out to be right then I will be back here kindly asking for his next stock tip.
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#5
My brother got burnt with tech stocks in 2000, then learned and improved his analysis. Last time, he got out in August of 2008, so he has some street cred with me, but, then, he was the genius that I admired in my childhood, so I am admittedly biased. He says this time it is different from all of the other years since he started trading in the 1990s, and to ignore all the people who try to keep people calm and to stay in the market if you are in it for the long run (retiring in 20 years +). That this will be a once-in a generation transfer of wealth and it is these days that it is decided how we individually will fare.  I will be happy to return to this thread in 2-4 years from now and either admit a mistake or collectively lick our wounds (because, of course, my husband does not want to listen). I would not listen to a random anonymous homeschooler poster's brother either.
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#6
I normally don't listen to any doomsday prophesies, just in general.

If he turns out to be wrong, I'll have lost money that I can never recover by pulling out when it's going up...and if he turns out to be right, I'm diversified, I'm still putting money in for the next 25+ years, there is still other ways to make money during this time...there's not a lot of downside to continuing as I've been doing. I'm going to guess others will feel the same.

Also, I'm not certain what he's saying really. Is he saying it's going to go down, and never recover? Because if that's the case, we'll have much bigger problems than our stock portfolios. That will be the least of our concerns.
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