Happy Liberation Day? And Trump’s Great Speech on Tariffs

[LevelUP]

Trump says he will pause tariff hikes for 90 days, but not for China

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-535...ffs-paused

China slaps 84% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/china-sl...trump.html

Funny comment I saw on Yahoo Finance on how to deal with Trump on tariffs

Taking the wrong approach.  Everyone needs to tell Trump the tariffs were a "beautiful" decision, best "in the history of the country" and that they have already worked.

Then convince Trump that removing them shows the world how powerful he is when the markets rebound.

Telling him the truth about how horrible his policy is will only result in him digging in his heels and throwing another online tantrum, like 2 year olds do.

The Nasdaq is up 12.5% today. Long live the king, Trump.

[LevelUP]

We're not in Kansas anymore.  Trump tariffs are now at 145%.

Apple airlifts 600 tons of iPhones from India 'to beat' Trump tariffs

https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple...025-04-10/

Besides Apple, these large companies are the most exposed to the China trade war.

Tesla: Relies on Chinese components (batteries, electronics) for U.S.-made vehicles, adding ~$7,000 per car in costs. U.S.-made Model S and X face China’s tariffs, halting new orders there.

Dell Technologies: 40% of its products are manufactured in China, risking margin pressure on laptops and servers.

HP Inc.: 30% of its PCs and printers come from China, facing similar cost hikes.

Nike: Sources ~25% of goods from China. Price increases or margin hits are likely.

Intel: China is 29% of its revenue, with $8 billion in U.S.-assembled CPUs exported annually, now facing China’s tariffs.

Boeing: China’s tariffs make its planes costlier versus Airbus, threatening 179 planned deliveries (2025-2027) to Chinese airlines.

General Motors and Ford: Both depend on Chinese auto parts, with GM facing higher cost pass-through risks than Ford due to broader exposure.

Walmart: Imports 40% of apparel/footwear from Asia, much from China, squeezing margins or raising prices.

[LevelUP]

The latest escalation in the trade war

China goes nuclear and halts some rare earth minerals that are crucial for the car, chip, and aerospace industries. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html

Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from new tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-ex...-dell.html

What's at stake

This key American business sector has a massive trade surplus with the rest of the world. Its jobs are at risk in a trade war
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/business/...index.html

China’s Trade Surplus Reaches a Record of Nearly $1 Trillion
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/12/business/china-trade-surplus.html


The Art of the Deal



Grant Cardone recently said in regards negations in this trade war, 

To make a deal you need these conditions:

1. Decision makers at the table.
2. Desire to come to an agreement.
3. Urgency.
4. Leverage.

We don't have yet 1, 2, or 3 but in terms of leverage

USA

• Largest consumer market in the world
  
• Largest economy in the world
  
• Currently sitting huge trade deficit with China
  

China

• 1.4 billion people fast-growing consumer economy 
  
• Low labor costs
  
• Low regulations
  
• Has a near monopoly on some rare-earth minerals
  
• Many U.S. companies operate inside China and need China for their business
  

How this plays out

Worst-case scenario: Egos get in the way, and the ones who suffer most are the many small businesses in both the U.S. and China.

Best-case scenario: This situation is resolved by the end of April. Otherwise, both Trump and Xi risk taking political damage as small businesses continue to struggle. After April, consumers will start noticing rising prices, which will gain more attention in the news.

Things could escalate further and China might even halt all production for U.S. companies operating within its borders.

[NotJoeBiden]

Art of the Deal

[LevelUP]

After April, consumers will start noticing rising prices, which will gain more attention in the news.

Exactly as I predicted, consumers will soon notice price increases.

White House blasts Amazon over tariff cost report: ‘Hostile and political act’
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/white-ho...l-act.html

As far as the "hostile and political act" is concerned, Trump raising tariffs on China to over 150% was itself a hostile and political move, so they have no room to talk. Trump has no real plan for a tariff "deal" with China, and nobody wants to pay more for goods while he waits to secure a branded "Trump deal," which will likely end up being nearly identical to the previous agreement we had with China. For many of us, the only thing we want from our government is to pay the lowest taxes possible and to be left alone.

People were fine with the previous tariffs during Trump's first term, and those tariffs were even maintained by Biden. In a war, nobody wins.

[SteveFoerster]

Like the saying goes, in a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act. Or in this case, a "hostile and political" one.

[NotJoeBiden]

Art of the deal

[SteveFoerster]

The Art of the Deal

Nah, he needs to be laughing.

[Ares]

Peter Retardo is the literally the dumbest economist of all time.