2 COVID Vaccines Approved, End to Pandemic in Sight??

[Merlin]

TLDR: In short, we're going to be MONTHS away from recovery, End of Story... <doh! I saw that coming!>

Even with these new vaccines ramping up production for release once they get their EUA, we're still looking at summer 2021 or so before the US will have enough vaccine supply to innoculate everyone who wants the vaccine. Assuming the mRNA vaccines are more durable than natural immunity (which initial testing is now suggesting) we still need like 80-90% of the people in the US to become immune to "end the pandemic" via herd immunity. So, in theory, if everyone in the US (or even just 80-90%) takes the vaccine, the US should be able to end the pandemic before the end of 2021. That said, it doesn't look like 80-90% of people in the US will take the vaccine when offered, so it may actually take longer than 2021 before we see an end in the US.

Of course, that doesn't account for the other nations. The richer nations will be fine and could have this cured before the end of 2021 like the US. However, the poorer nations are probably looking at more than a year, maybe even multiple years before they can treat everyone.

Given how easy it is to travel globally, the longer there are still people in the world with the virus, there will always the chance that it could spread again to infect anyone who didn't take the vaccine or those 5-10% whose system doesn't develop the proper immune response to the virus after taking the vaccine.

So, when they say months, I imagine they are only talking about the US and other first-world nations. We're probably talking years before this will be wiped out globally. Unless the pharma companies, rich nations, or a few philanthropic billionaires step up to help cover the cost of purchasing and distributing the vaccine to people in those poorer nations. Which isn't unreasonable considering it is in everyone's best interest to wipe it out ASAP.