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07-07-2020, 04:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2020, 04:28 PM by Merlin.)
So, a new article just came out yesterday based on a nationwide study of the population of Spain. It basically confirms the initial evidence that herd immunity (at least through natural infection) to COVID-19 is not possible. So until we get a vaccine or at least a reliable treatment, we're going to be dealing with masks and social distancing.
"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable."
The full text of the journal article (from the Lancet, a top medical journal since 1823) is below if you're interested in reading more...
www.thelancet.com
Given that, it seems critical that the US needs to step up its game when it comes to mandating mask use, physical distancing, contact tracing, and ramping up our testing capabilities so we can test everyone in order to control the spread of the disease. If we don't we will never be able to reopen safely. Somehow I doubt that is going to be a priority considering that it seems like a lot of people are just ignoring it now and hoping COVID goes away on its own. Heck, the US just announced that we are withdrawing from the WHO in the midst of a pandemic, so it seems clear that we're not taking this seriously enough.
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A vaccine is big step it the right direction, but it won't solve everything, especially not right away. I doubt we will get back to "normal" anytime soon. I don't like how the media is making it seem like the instant we get a vaccine all our problems will be solved.
I think social distancing and masks will be a thing ever after the vaccine comes out. And hygiene of course too, but that is something that should be done even when there isn't a pandemic.
I just hope hand washing never goes out of style even after masks do.
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07-07-2020, 04:41 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2020, 04:45 PM by Merlin.)
(07-07-2020, 04:27 PM)natshar Wrote: A vaccine is big step it the right direction, but it won't solve everything, especially not right away. I doubt we will get back to "normal" anytime soon. I don't like how the media is making it seem like the instant we get a vaccine all our problems will be solved.
I think social distancing and masks will be a thing ever after the vaccine comes out. And hygiene of course too, but that is something that should be done even when there isn't a pandemic.
I just hope hand washing never goes out of style even after masks do.
A vaccine won't be a panacea, especially since it will take a long time before everyone could be vaccinated (and there are a lot of people who will refuse it). Plus it is likely that we'll need to get additional vaccinations on a recurring basis as we do with the flu. But it will at least get the ball rolling.
I also agree that we would be well-advised to keep up the social distancing, mask use, and improved focus on hand hygiene as much as possible both before and after. We know there are other superbugs out there just waiting for their shot. I doubt people in the US will continue regular mask use when they no longer have to, but at least the people wearing masks won't be seen as unusual since there will probably be a lot more people wearing masks after all this is done.
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(07-07-2020, 04:15 PM)Merlin Wrote: So, a new article just came out yesterday based on a nationwide study of the population of Spain. It basically confirms the initial evidence that herd immunity (at least through natural infection) to COVID-19 is not possible. So until we get a vaccine or at least a reliable treatment, we're going to be dealing with masks and social distancing.
"In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable."
The full text of the journal article (from the Lancet, a top medical journal since 1823) is below if you're interested in reading more...
www.thelancet.com
Given that, it seems critical that the US needs to step up its game when it comes to mandating mask use, physical distancing, contact tracing, and ramping up our testing capabilities so we can test everyone in order to control the spread of the disease. If we don't we will never be able to reopen safely. Somehow I doubt that is going to be a priority considering that it seems like a lot of people are just ignoring it now and hoping COVID goes away on its own. Heck, the US just announced that we are withdrawing from the WHO in the midst of a pandemic, so it seems clear that we're not taking this seriously enough.
Can't say I am sorry we're leaving the WHO. It's a corrupt organization which the US sends hundreds of millions of taxpayer money to annually. There are far better uses for our tax dollars.
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The next logical step is to test everyone using pool testing which could cost as low as $5 each. Require all workers to be tested before being allowed to work or for people that go to school. Do the tests every 2 weeks till we knock down the numbers to almost nothing.
Everyone that flies in a plane or that attends a big event like a football game needs to be tested as well. Other than that I don't think we need to force people to be tested. Certainly, if you develop a fever, lose the sense of smell, you should get tested pronto.
The masks should be worn inside as that is where 90% of the transmission occurs according to Chinese studies. Require at least 80% of people wear masks inside enclosed areas or refuse service. We don't need to issue fines to people or worry about people wearing masks outside.
All this stuff is pretty simple. It's not like we are trying to build a fleet of rocket ships to go to Mars in order to start a new colony. Opentrons makes open-source PCR machines. These machines aren't that complex. Reagents can be mass-produced. I am baffled that isn't a serious effort anywhere in the world to put an end to this thing. It's like living in an episode of the Twilight Zone.
Havard announced they are closing down classes, all classes will be online though students can live in dorms. A lot of other colleges are following suit. Melbourne Australia announced they are shutting down again. This is ridiculous!
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(07-07-2020, 03:40 PM)natshar Wrote: (07-07-2020, 03:17 PM)eriehiker Wrote: She (Whitmer) has just been the best.
But you know she has a lot of people who don't like her. She is all over the news and of course there were protesters against her.
I guess that is how it is being in the public eye. For every fan, you've got a hater as well.
My Dad keeps saying "I wouldn't want to be president, governor or in charge of anything right now"
Like hypothetically a leader could do everything 100% perfectly and they would still get criticism. Plus there is the fact that there is soooo much unknown. So obviously it makes sense that people would skeptical of certain regulations and if they would actually help prevent the virus or make a difference. And the thing is even the people in charge aren't completely certain, and every single politician is working on at least some degree of speculation because humans are not all knowing creatures.
I think that we live in the age of the false equivalence. I don't think that it is true that for every fan there is a hater. Two examples:
Gov. DeWine ® in Ohio. He is a fantastic governor and has a 79% approval rating.
https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/loc...iZvZPHXfI/
Gov. Whitmer (D) in Michigan. Whitmer has a 55% approval rating generally, vs. 43% who don't approve. Her coronavirus approval is currently 60% and it was in the 70s a month ago. She just announced a bipartisan budget deal.
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/po...-response/
I would say that both governors are very broadly popular. DeWine has the higher percentage because Republicans are just much less likely to ever support a Democratic governor than Democrats are to ever support a Republican governor. The protests against Whitmer were not broadly supported by Republicans.
When an extremist on either side does something that is nonsense, we frequently hear people say that both parties do it or all politicians are like this. That is not true and it cheapens the very real accomplishments of governors like DeWine and Whitmer.
Everybody does not do it and extreme actions should not be accepted via false equivalence.
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07-07-2020, 05:43 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2020, 05:50 PM by Merlin.)
(07-07-2020, 05:06 PM)ss20ts Wrote: Can't say I am sorry we're leaving the WHO. It's a corrupt organization which the US sends hundreds of millions of taxpayer money to annually. There are far better uses for our tax dollars.
While I respect your opinion, that is an unqualified statement without any proof--only political rhetoric. The WHO is coordinating the international response to COVID-19. While I'm sure they are not perfect, I have seen no evidence to suggest that they are corrupt or misappropriating the money that the various nations provide to support their work. The US is the only nation that has made this claim, and it appears to be broadly attributed to conjecture on the part of the POTUS suggesting that there is a Chinese conspiracy of some kind and that they are pulling the strings of the WHO.
I'd welcome corroborated/peer-reviewed evidence to the contrary, assuming it originates from unbiased organizations without any political ties. This basically means investigatory organizations outside the US since it is nearly impossible to trust any news agency or official in the US with all the politics and lobbyists.
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(07-07-2020, 05:43 PM)Merlin Wrote: (07-07-2020, 05:06 PM)ss20ts Wrote: Can't say I am sorry we're leaving the WHO. It's a corrupt organization which the US sends hundreds of millions of taxpayer money to annually. There are far better uses for our tax dollars.
While I respect your opinion, that is an unqualified statement without any proof--only political rhetoric.
A Berkeley scientist found that the WHO basically issued statements that were actually China's talking points about the virus. Here's an article from The Atlantic that provides the details. This article , also from The Atlantic, was written several days later by another author. It gives additional examples of WHO's corruption while taking issue with the de-funding efforts.
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Can't say I am sorry we're leaving the WHO. It's a corrupt organization which the US sends hundreds of millions of taxpayer money to annually. There are far better uses for our tax dollars.
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07-08-2020, 03:19 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-08-2020, 03:20 PM by Ideas.
Edit Reason: Fixed link
)
(07-05-2020, 06:55 PM)ss20ts Wrote: Fabric masks made by Aunt Sally do not keep your germ particles to yourself. The gaps between the cotton fiber threads are too large and virus can get through those gaps. The masks really are a feel good measure. People are wearing masks and still getting the virus.
Yes, some homemade masks are poorly designed, however, generally they are helpful. And many homemade masks have multiple layers, elastic to help it fit more snugly, etc.
"Viola and colleagues provide qualitative and quantitative data on the ability of N95, surgical and cloth face masks, and face shields, to block forward transmission during coughing and breathing, amplifying on the Tang study. They found that 90% of forward transmission was blocked by all mask types, including the homemade cloth masks. Depending on the gap between the covering and the face there was downward, lateral, upward and backward leakage." From https://rs-delve.github.io/addenda/2020/...pdate.html
Viola, IM. (2020) Face Coverings, Aerosol Dispersion and Mitigation of Virus Transmission Risk. Available from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.10720
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